LONG-ONLY / S&P 500 / RULES-BASED
One signal. One edge. Every trading day.
The market is ruthless — it rewards the prepared and punishes the rest. One rules-based S&P 500 signal, every trading day, before the open. No guesswork. No noise. No chatrooms.
// WHAT YOU GET
Markets don't reward activity. They reward timing.
Every trading day before the open, you receive a single SPX signal. That's the product. The discipline is the edge.
One daily signal
A clear, unambiguous call on the S&P 500, delivered pre-market. No interpretation required.
Probabilities, not emotions
Signals come from a macro model that measures where price sits against fair value. No gut calls. No narratives. Just the odds, on your side.
Protect capital. Capture opportunity.
The model scales from all cash to fully invested only as probabilities improve. Risk is sized, never assumed.
// PERFORMANCE
This isn't theory. It's results.
Backtested +465% from 1999–2012. Live since 2012. Every trade, every signal, every result — published. The data speaks for itself.
- Winning trades, 2013–2025104
- Losing trades, 2013–202523
- Average winner+2.8%
- Average loser−2.4%
- Largest winner (2014)+20%
- Largest loser (2020 COVID)−22%
Ex-COVID, the largest loss was −6.9% and the average loser −1.5%.
// THE MODEL
Exposure scales with probability.
Long-only, maximum 200%. The model holds cash when odds are poor and presses only when the S&P trades at an extreme discount to macro fair value.
// PRICING
Two plans. No tiers of tiers.
Daily Signals
- Daily SPX Buy / Hold / Sell signal, emailed everyday
- 1–3 high-conviction unusual options flow ideas daily
- Weekend model review
MarketModel PRO
- Daily written market analysis
- Daily ES scalp levels, plus long-term and tactical pivots
- Sunday institutional macro briefing
- Equity allocation framework for managed capital
- Sector rotation and positioning analysis
- Full post archive, including everything published before you joined
Signals is one call a day. PRO is the whole playbook: daily written analysis, ES scalp levels, institutional macro, and allocation.
PRO members read every post, past and present. Go to posts →
// CLIENTS
Trusted since 2013.
Hedge funds, RIAs, asset managers, and accredited investors. Opened to retail in 2021.
"Don't be stupid, just follow the model."
Asset manager
"Every SPY trade is green. Thank you!"
Registered investment advisor
// FAQ
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MarketModel is a systematic trading service designed to optimize your entries and exits in the S&P 500 using data-driven signals. The model leverages macroeconomic insights and real-time probabilities to generate actionable trade signals that prioritize risk management and performance.
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Yes, you can with MarketModel! Our systematic approach, backed by macroeconomic analysis and historical data, helps you identify key opportunities for optimal entries and exits, taking the guesswork out of trading.
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MarketModel’s edge lies in its integration of macroeconomic analysis with precision timing in the S&P 500. While most services rely on technical analysis alone, MarketModel combines data science with market cycles, giving traders an emotion-free, methodical framework to navigate volatile markets successfully.
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Signals are delivered in real-time, end of day, when the model identifies high-probability setups. This ensures you receive updates precisely when they matter most—whether it’s adding exposure, scaling back, or holding cash for strategic advantage.
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The service is tailored for individual traders, RIAs, and fund managers who want a systematic approach to market timing. Whether you're a hands-on investor or looking for a complement to your existing strategies, MarketModel empowers you with insights and actionable signals to make informed decisions.
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We don’t offer free trials, but you can sample one of our Sunday Macro Insights—normally reserved for members. It’s a great way to experience the depth and quality of analysis that drives our trading signals.
Ready to elevate your trading? Join MarketModel Trades today!
// FREE
Not ready? Read the macro letter.
Free macro insights, past trades, and performance. No commitment.