Last SubStack was a warning, telling you as August began that the markets were too certain they were right about the “no landing” narrative. Macro values I measure had rolled over back in July at 4500, which meant a slowing was underway, and so I assumed that finally a recession was coming. As always, I make the forecast and then wait… for data. Macro is time-series analysis. It updates daily. Over time, it can roll over, but then slow its decline and bottom. When it changes, so does my outlook on the economy (and my investments).

It was lonely going into 2023 ignoring the warnings of Recession, and after having scooped up TSLA and META near their lows, I spent Q1 on SubStack pushing back on every seemingly negative Macro datapoint offered by “the experts.” Where most got it wrong was missing the fact that the Man-made Macro Cycle of 2020-2021 invalidated many of the YoY comparisons, creating many dislocations and false signals that had been reliable during normal market conditions. Fortunately, the Macro models I developed have proprietary methods for looking forward, not backward, and they showed Macro was actually Improving from SPX 3900.

AI is a distraction

The fear of a housing market crash comparable to 2008 has resurfaced, but the reality is far different. While rising interest rates and home prices may share some similarities, the underlying market dynamics are completely different. Many believe a severe downturn is inevitable, yet key macroeconomic indicators suggest otherwise.

For many, the years 2020-2022 seem like an economic anomaly—a surreal period marked by a global shutdown, historic money printing, and zero interest rates that defied traditional market logic. During this time, supply and demand dynamics were turned upside down. While macro values typically cycle between Improving and Declining twice a year, 2022 alone saw five complete cycle turns. This acceleration, driven largely by man-made interventions, rendered historical comparisons nearly obsolete.

Every smart person has the same forecast - a recession is coming with corporate earnings going lower and therefore so are stock prices. It’s smart because the first part is correct, but the second part - how stock prices will react - is where most are missing some context. Markets already reacted.